Four Months For First Vaccine In Bird Flu Pandemic
By D. Arul Rajoo
Bernama, 4 Dec 2006

BANGKOK, Dec 4 (Bernama) -- Despite frantic research and development of the H5N1 vaccine, it could take at least four months for the first doses of vaccine to emerge from factories and reach affected populations in the event of a pandemic, a global vaccine research forum heard today.

Britain's Health Department director of Immunization David M. Salisbury said it could take up to a year for sufficient vaccine to be produced to allow two doses for each member of the countries to be vaccinated.

"During this time, at the least the first pandemic wave will be over, and the second and third waves, should they occur, may also be over before significant numbers of individuals can be vaccinated," he told the Seventh World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global Vaccine Research Forum here.

According to the WHO, the H5N1 strain of avian influenza had killed 154 people in the last three years, with Indonesia topping the list with 57 casualties while millions of poultry had been culled to contain the virus in animals.

In the event of an influenza pandemic, global spread of infection would occur

within a matter of weeks, Salisbury said, adding that past experience showed that post-pandemic vaccination did little to protect humankind.

He said the authorities must also come out with a priority list of who should get vaccinated first and suggested that health care personnel and school children be vaccinated first.

"Children can easily get infected. So, it will be better to give them the vaccine first as they are all in school at the same time," he added.

Malik Peiris from Hong Kong University's Department of Microbiology, said that at the moment, the WHO had four candidate vaccines undergoing various stages of development and clinical trials.

He said since the bird flu was first detected in Hong Kong in 1997, the virus had caused widespread disease in poultry in many countries in Asia, Africa and Europe.

"In countries like Japan, South Korea and Malaysia, the virus has been successfully stamped out as it was detected early and aggressive control measures were implemented," he said.

But in countries where recognition was delayed and the virus established itself in backyard poultry flocks, eradication had proved extremely difficult, Peiris said, adding that active surveillance of the poultry industry and live poultry market was necessary.

"Some studies show that the virus is more ubiquitous than previously supposed. Given the unprecedented geographical extent of the area with endemic infection in poultry, it's likely the H5N1 virus is going to pose a long-term threat to humans and poultry," he added.

Peiris said although human-to-human transmission cases remained rare, the possible adaptation of the H5N1 virus to more efficient transmission among humans continued to pose a significant pandemic threat.

WHO's Alejandro J. Costa said it would require between US$3 billion and US$10 billion to implement a global pandemic influenza action plan but the first results might only be seen in the time-frame of three to five years.

He said that besides major pharmaceutical companies licensed to produce vaccines in case of a pandemic, the WHO was also evaluating the capacity in individual countries.-- BERNAMA