Bird flu pandemic threat growing but stoppable – WHO
By George Nishiyama

The Star, 13 Jan 2006

TOKYO (Reuters) - The threat of a bird flu pandemic is growing daily, but a pandemic is not inevitable if countries and health bodies can respond quickly enough, a top World Health Organisation (WHO) official said on Thursday. 

Fears have been growing about the H5N1 avian flu virus spreading to more countries after a spate of infections in Turkey, the first cases in humans outside East Asia. 

"As the new cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus in Turkey show, the situation is worsening with each passing month and the threat of an influenza pandemic is continuing to grow every day," Shigeru Omi, WHO's regional director for the Western Pacific, said. 

He was addressing a gathering of Asian countries and international organisations holding two days of talks in Tokyo. The talks began on Thursday. 

"We must try to ensure that we will be ready to respond instantly with all the weapons at our disposal should the early signs of an influenza pandemic appear," Omi said, noting that Asia was still the epicentre of the threat to global health. 

"If we can achieve this rapid response, we may have a good chance of halting the spread of the virus before the situation becomes uncontrollable, or at least of slowing it down. But if we fail, the consequences for societies, economies and global public health could be immeasurable," he added.   

At least 78 people are confirmed to have died of bird flu since late 2003, with the majority of cases in Southeast Asia and China. But it has killed at least two children in Turkey and infected more than a dozen people there in little more than a week, triggering a huge effort to contain the virus. 

Scientists say the H5N1 virus remains relatively hard for people to catch and is spread almost exclusively through contact with birds, but there are fears it could mutate into a pandemic form which could kill millions of people. 

Omi told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday that among steps likely to be discussed at the conference were ways to raise public awareness and to strengthen surveillance. 

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS 

The WHO believes that a weak surveillance system was one of the factors behind the sudden outbreak of the disease in Turkey and sees early warning as vital in preventing a human pandemic. 

"By the time we leave here, we must all have a clear understanding of what has to be done to enable us to contain a virus with pandemic potential," he told the conference. 

"We will have to focus on many practical issues, such as how to swiftly distribute stockpiles of anti-viral drugs to affected areas." 

The WHO will also present likely scenarios of an outbreak of a mutated form of H5N1 that can be easily passed among people and discuss how countries in Asia can help each other, including distribution of anti-viral drugs. 

Support from richer nations for developing countries, where most of the cases have emerged, was crucial, Omi said on Wednesday. 

"It takes two to tango. Developing countries' effort alone is not sufficient. The developed world also has to provide support," he said. 

No new financial pledges were expected at the Tokyo conference, which brings together some rich nations from outside of Asia including Britain and the United States, as well as aid bodies such as the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank. 

But Omi said he expected potential donor nations to come up with promises for fresh assistance at a meeting in Beijing next week.